A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
